What Trump and Biden’s recent campaign stops tell us about election strategy – National

0


U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden are in the final stretch of the election race, and with one day left, the two candidates are devoting their time to battleground states Monday, hoping to gain as many votes as they can.

More than 93 million Americans have already cast their vote, and Biden is leading most national polls with a narrow advantage in the critical swing states that could decide the winner. But despite the lead, the race for the White House is still uncertain.

READ MORE: A look at swing states and why they matter during the U.S. election

Trump’s team has taken a more aggressive approach to campaign in the final week, with at least 31 rallies in 12 states. Meanwhile, Biden’s team has taken a more laid-back approach. He and his vice president pick, Kamala Harris, held 15 rallies in 11 states. Biden stayed back in his home state Deleware for two of the days.

Story continues below advertisement

“The different campaign schedules tell us both about the Trump campaign’s need and desire for in-person events as well as the differing approaches of the two campaigns to COVID-19. Democrats are just being more cautious than Republicans,” Kyle Kondik, a political analyst at the University of Virginia, told Global News.

Here is a look at where Trump and Biden have campaigned since Oct. 26. and what it may mean.


Click to play video 'U.S. election: Trump says he ‘didn’t have the courage’ to skip North Carolina event'



U.S. election: Trump says he ‘didn’t have the courage’ to skip North Carolina event


U.S. election: Trump says he ‘didn’t have the courage’ to skip North Carolina event

Wisconsin and Michigan

Wisconsin and Michigan are two states Trump and Biden are battling for. While Biden’s team held one rally each in both states, Trump’s team held 10 rallies between the two.

Trump is scheduled to hold rallies in Michigan and Wisconsin on his final day of campaigning.

During the 2016 presidential election, Trump won Wisconsin by less than one percentage point and had 22,748 more votes than Hillary Clinton. And in Michigan Trump won by 0.3 percentage points and had 10,704 more votes.

Story continues below advertisement

Read more:
Trump, Biden campaign in Wisconsin for final stretch of U.S. election campaigns

What do the polls say?

According to a poll conducted Oct. 20-25 for ABC News/The Washington Post, the latest coronavirus surge in Wisconsin has hurt Trump and helped Biden.

Biden leads Trump by 57-40 per cent among likely voters in Wisconsin, a state that’s now reported to be third in the nation in per capita COVID-19 cases. That compares with a closer 52-46 per cent in mid-September.

Biden holds a slighter advantage in Michigan, with sizable leads among women, moderates and independents, the poll said. Biden is ahead by seven percentage points in Michigan (51-44 per cent), the polling showed.


Click to play video 'Trump riles up supporters with attack on Michigan governor'



Trump riles up supporters with attack on Michigan governor


Trump riles up supporters with attack on Michigan governor

“It looks like the Republican Party is on offence in the sense that they’re campaigning in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Pennsylvania, which are all in play,” Ryan Hurl, assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto in Scarborough, said.

Story continues below advertisement

“There is nothing unusual about where Trump’s campaigning … he’s trying to maintain what he achieved in 2016. That’s where the focus is,” he said.

Minnesota

Trump and Biden both campaigned in Minnesota over the last week — a longtime Democratic state that the Republican president is trying to flip.

In 2016, Clinton narrowly won Minnesota by less than two per cent of the votes.

What do the polls say?

A poll by Survey USA (conducted between Oct. 23 and 27) shows Trump slightly closing in on Biden in Minnesota.

Biden hasn’t seen momentum in Minnesota since early September (polling showed him sitting at 49 per cent of the votes at that time). The latest poll shows him at 47 per cent. Trump started at 40 per cent in early September and the latest poll shows him at 42 per cent.


Click to play video 'Trump claims Joe Biden would turn Minnesota into a ‘refugee camp’'



Trump claims Joe Biden would turn Minnesota into a ‘refugee camp’


Trump claims Joe Biden would turn Minnesota into a ‘refugee camp’

Hurl said the fact that Biden is campaigning in Minnesota means this election is “going to be close” — it shows that Democrats may be desperate to keep the state blue.

Story continues below advertisement

“People are campaigning where they think they need to,” he explained. “Minnesota was ground zero of a lot of the issues regarding police this summer. And I think there’s a sense that this creates a kind of opening for the Republican Party.”

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania has hosted the highest number of campaign rallies between Trump and Biden over the past week.

On Monday, Trump, Vice President Mike Pence, Biden and Harris will all be campaigning in Pennsylvania, one of the most important battleground states in the election.

Read more:
Biden pushes for Black voter turnout days before U.S. election

In 2016, Trump won the state by less than one per cent of the votes.

What do the polls say?

Biden has a lead over Trump in the swing state, according to a recent poll by Quinnipiac University. The poll, which was conducted Oct. 23-27, showed Biden at 51 per cent, leading Trump, at 46 per cent, by seven points.

“As the pressure builds and both campaigns circle their wagons around Pennsylvania, Joe Biden holds onto his lead as Donald Trump hopes to recreate his 2016 win there. What’s working to Biden’s advantage is his ability to stay above 50 per cent support, and that voters like him better than they do Trump,” Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow said in the poll.

Story continues below advertisement


Click to play video 'U.S. election: ‘We have to earn our democracy,’ says Biden in Pennsylvania two days before election'



U.S. election: ‘We have to earn our democracy,’ says Biden in Pennsylvania two days before election


U.S. election: ‘We have to earn our democracy,’ says Biden in Pennsylvania two days before election

Texas

Harris was in Texas on Friday, which is a longtime GOP bastion that Democrats insist is in play this year.

Trump clinched Texas in 2016 with a nine percentage point lead of 807,179 votes.

What do the polls say?

A poll conducted by The New York times/Siena College Research Institute shows voters favouring Trump. The poll, conducted Oct. 20-25 shows 47 per cent of respondents would vote for Trump and 43 per cent would vote for Biden.

Despite the Democrat’s campaigning in the state, Hurl said he believes Texas will still go Republican.

I’d be very surprised if the race is close in Texas,” he said. “One day it will be closer … as Texas will enter the ranks of battleground states as the population and political culture start to shift.”

Story continues below advertisement


Click to play video 'U.S. election: Biden comments on campaign bus surrounded by pro-Trump caravan in Texas'



U.S. election: Biden comments on campaign bus surrounded by pro-Trump caravan in Texas


U.S. election: Biden comments on campaign bus surrounded by pro-Trump caravan in Texas

Florida

On Thursday, both Biden and Trump were in Florida holding campaign rallies.

Florida is considered a critical battleground state, and usually a predictor of who will win the race to the White House.

Read more:
Trump, Biden battle for Florida voters as coronavirus stays in U.S. election spotlight

“If Florida goes blue, it’s over,” Biden told supporters Thursday.

Trump narrowly won Florida in 2016 by about one per cent of the vote.

What do the polls say?

Biden has a slight edge over Trump in Florida, according to recent polling.

Story continues below advertisement

In a Monmouth University poll (conducted Oct. 24-28), it showed that 50 per cent of respondents would vote for Biden and 45 per cent for Trump.

Arizona

Arizona is another swing state this election year, which explains why Trump and Biden have both campaigned there this week.

Trump won Arizona by 3.5 percentage points and 91,234 votes in 2016.

What do the polls say?

A poll conducted Oct. 21-27 by Ipsos showed Biden slightly ahead in the swing state.

Biden had 48 per cent of the votes and Trump had 46 per cent, the poll showed.


Click to play video 'Trump visits southern border wall construction in Arizona'



Trump visits southern border wall construction in Arizona


Trump visits southern border wall construction in Arizona

Nevada

Nevada was also on the campaign trail this week. Pence held a rally there on Thursday and Harris campaigned there on Tuesday.

Story continues below advertisement

Clinton won Nevada in 2016 by 2.4 percentage points and 27,202 of the votes.

What do the polls say?

A poll conducted by The New York times/Siena College Research Institute shows voters favouring Biden. The poll, conducted Oct. 23-26, said that 49 per cent of respondents would vote for Biden and 43 per cent would vote for Trump.

Georgia

Biden and Trump both held rallies in Georgia this week — a state that is typically Republican.

Trump won Georgia by a little more than five percentage points in 2016 with 211,141 votes.

What do the polls say?

A Monmouth University poll (conducted Oct. 23-27), said the race for Georgia’s electoral votes remains very close. The latest polling shows Biden ahead among registered voters.

Read more:
Investors prepare for short-term market turmoil over U.S. election results

Among all registered voters in the state, Biden is supported by 50 per cent and Trump is supported by 45 per cent, the poll showed.

Despite Biden’s consistent lead in the national polls, though, Georgia voters are more likely to expect Trump (51 per cent) will win a second term.

Story continues below advertisement

Nebraska

Trump campaigned in Nebraska on Tuesday, another state that is typically Republican.

Four years ago, Trump won Nebraska by 25 percentage points and 211,467 votes.

What do the polls say?

The latest poll conducted by Emerson College showed Biden leading Trump in the state. The poll, conducted Oct. 29-30 showed 50 per cent of respondents choosing Biden over Trump (47 per cent).


Click to play video '‘There could be turmoil’: How Canada is bracing for the U.S. election'



‘There could be turmoil’: How Canada is bracing for the U.S. election


‘There could be turmoil’: How Canada is bracing for the U.S. election

Iowa

Iowa, which Donald Trump won by more than nine points in 2016, is among the clutch of GOP-leaning states that Biden is trying to turn blue.

What do the polls say?

Trump had a narrow lead over Biden in Iowa, according to a recent poll by Quinnipiac University. The poll, which was conducted Oct. 23-27, showed Trump (46 per cent) leading Biden (45 per cent) by one point.

Story continues below advertisement

North and South Carolina

Trump’s team has campaigned in North Carolina (another swing state) five times this past week and made one appearance in South Carolina. Harris made a campaign stop in North Carolina on Sunday.

Trump won North Carolina by 3.6 percentage points and 173,315 votes in 2016 and South Carolina a little more than 14 points and 300,016 votes.

What do the polls say?

An NBC News/Marist College poll conducted Oct. 25-28 showed Biden with an edge over Trump in North Carolina. The poll said 51 per cent of respondents chose Biden and 46 per cent picked Trump.

READ MORE: ‘Please like me’ — Trump asks suburban women to vote, but are they behind him?

In South Carolina, polling showed Trump ahead of Biden.

According to a poll by Data for Process, conducted Oct. 22-27, Trump was ahead by 16 points. The poll showed that 53 per cent of respondents would vote for Trump and 37 per cent would vote for Biden.

Trump and Biden’s campaign strategy

The Trump campaign has sprinted through many states and held countless rallies during the past week, while Biden’s team has taken a more cautious approach, Hurl said.

Story continues below advertisement

“Trump is repeating his campaign strategies from 2016. In terms of Biden’s approach, I think it will be seen as either the most brilliant campaign in modern history or a serious error,” he explained.


Click to play video 'Trump vs. Biden: Who won the final presidential debate?'



Trump vs. Biden: Who won the final presidential debate?


Trump vs. Biden: Who won the final presidential debate?

Biden has been taking a “low profile” approach to campaigning, which could signal that he is taking the coronavirus pandemic seriously, or it’s also a deliberate strategy to keep the election as a “referendum on Trump.”

Hurl said another element of Biden’s cautious campaign approach may be the fact that he does not have the stamina for intense campaigning.

“It’s hard to know, but I think there’s a lot of skepticism in Biden’s ‘non-campaign’ campaign approach,” Hurl said.




© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.





Source link

Leave A Reply

Your email address will not be published.

//luvaihoo.com/afu.php?zoneid=3473080